Torches and Pitchforks

Since this is a political blog, I should probably say something about the Republican National Convention. To me, the most interesting question is, why did Ted Cruz make his speech? Pundits have given all kinds of reasons why Cruz did it. The more interesting question, however, is why did Donald Trump allow the Cruz speech to be made at his convention. By all accounts, Trump had seen the text of the speech well in advance, and could have refused to allow Cruz to speak at all. The pundits say that his failure to do so weakened his campaign by exposing party disunity. If this was a typical campaign, I would agree. But it is not.

The standard narrative has it that Cruz made the speech to position himself for the 2020 campaign. Cruz is reportedly deeply unpopular with his Republican colleagues in the Senate. He has an abrasive manner and a fondness for grandstanding. Despite this, he imagined that the Republican establishment would rally around his flag in the name of stopping Trump in the primaries. When that didn’t happen, he thought he would become the leader of a coup at the convention to steal the nomination from Trump for the good of the Party. What Ted Cruz found out, however, is that most establishment Republicans hate him almost as much as they hate Trump. So, in this context, the important thing in the speech was the appeal for votes for down ticket candidates. To position himself for a run in 2020, Cruz needs to back this up by actively campaigning for Senate and House candidates other than himself. This will require him to become a team player, which will in turn require him to learn humility. According to this narrative, Cruz has learned that he can’t become president by himself.

Political conventions are a form of theater. The goal is usually to present a united front, and tell a feel good story about the candidate. Everything is carefully scripted and choreographed, and the audience at home sees only what the Party wants them to see. But Donald Trump will not be elected on the basis of any feel good story. He needs to feed anger and fear to be successful. So a finely sculpted convention does not serve his purpose. Accidents need to happen, because Trump is supposedly not faking anything. Melania Trump’s supposedly inadvertent plagiarism on the opening night makes Trump just one of us. It was a mistake that could have happened to anyone, but there is supposedly no fakery that might have caught it. During the campaign, Trump used the fear of minorities, immigrants, and terrorists as his monster. Trump took on the role of the brave first peasant to pick up a torch and a pitchfork to nobly drive the monster out. The purpose of his convention is to make Hillary Clinton the personification of this monster. In this context, Chris Christie’s call and response mock trial was perfect theater. But Trump needed to give the mob a small victory to keep their zeal going. In the general election, Hillary Clinton represents the establishment, in the form of intrusive big government. But in the primary, Ted Cruz became the last hope for the Republican Party establishment that wanted to stop Trump. So he was not only allowed to make his speech; it was part of the plan. Cruz took one for the team by playing the bad guy. His speech was an odd one for him, seeming as it did to acknowledge gay marriage and the importance of civil rights. But it was exactly the kind of speech the establishment monster would make. Cruz withheld his endorsement and played the establishment figure to give the mob a small prize to boo off the stage.

If I am right about this, Donald Trump is far more dangerous than most people think. His seeming gaffes are actually coldly calculated, and we are all being expertly played. But there is also a key here to defeating Trump. Hillary Clinton must show that she is not the monster after all. She must demonstrate caring and personal warmth. These are qualities that those who know her privately say she possesses in abundance, but she has trouble showing them on the campaign trail. If she can, she will be able to get people to look around and see that the monster is actually Donald Trump.